Ellen's 2025 Oscar Predictions

Well, that was a bit of a mad dash, but I managed to watch 35 out of the 50 nominated films before the Oscars! With the big night approaching, here are my predictions for who I think will win and who should win in each category.

After the ceremony, I’ll update this post with the actual winners—let’s see how many I get right! In 2024, I correctly predicted 16 winners, and in 2023, I only got 12 right.

Updated on 3 March 2025 with those who did win. I predicted 15 of 23, with (hurrah!) 4 of my 'should wins' actually win!

Check out my ratings via letterboxd and see how my ratings compare to yours. I’ll also note the films I haven’t seen yet.

Best Picture

👑 Did win: Anora

✅ Will win: The Brutalist – A sweeping, ambitious drama with prestige appeal. Feels like the kind of film the Academy rewards, but Anora could be a dark horse. 💛 Should win: Anora – A fresh and exciting film that takes risks. Would love to see it take the top prize! Not seen: Dune: Part Two and I'm Still Here

Best Actor

👑 Did win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

✅ Will win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) – A transformative role in a film that’s expected to do well overall. 💛 Should win: Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) – His performance has been a standout all season, and he could pull off an upset.

Best Actress

👑 Did win: Mikey Madison (Anora)

✅ Will win: Demi Moore (The Substance) – Comeback performances often do well (Brendan Fraser, Matthew McConaughey), and Moore is getting tons of praise. 💛 Should win: Mikey Madison (Anora) – A bold, unique performance that deserves recognition. Not seen: Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

Best Supporting Actress

👑 Did win: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

✅ Will win: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) – The Academy loves rewarding actors in musicals (Jennifer Hudson, Ariana DeBose), and she’s long overdue for a major win. 💛 Should win: Ariana Grande (Wicked) – A deliciously Wicked peformance, she could surprise.

Best Supporting Actor

👑 Did win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

✅ Will win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) – He’s been dominating this category in other awards shows, so this feels like his to lose.

💛 Should win: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) – A nuanced, scene-stealing performance that might be overlooked.

Best Director

👑 Did win: Sean Baker (Anora)

✅ Will win: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) – A technical and artistic achievement that’s likely to sway voters.

💛 Should win: Sean Baker (Anora) – A daring, distinct voice that deserves recognition.

Best Adapted Screenplay

👑 Did win: Conclave – Peter Straughan

✅ Will win: Conclave – Peter Straughan is a respected writer, and this film has a strong, dialogue-driven script.

💛 Should win: Nickel Boys – A powerful adaptation that tells an important story.

Best Original Screenplay

👑 Did win: Anora 

✅ Will win: A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg’s script has been widely praised, and this category often rewards strong dialogue and character work.

💛 Should win: Anora – Sean Baker's incredibly well-crafted story that deserves the win.

Best Original Song

👑 Did win: Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez)

✅ Will win: Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez) – Big musical numbers tend to have an edge here (Let It Go, Shallow, What Was I Made For?).

💛 Should win: Like a Bird (Sing Sing) – A beautiful song that fits the film’s emotional core.

Best Original Score

👑 Did win: The Brutalist 

✅ Will win: The Brutalist – A haunting, memorable score that enhances the film’s atmosphere.

💛 Should win: The Brutalist – No complaints here, it deserves the win.

Best International Feature

👑 Did win: I'm Still Here (Brazil)

✅ Will win: I'm Still Here (Brazil) – Has been getting major buzz.

💛 Should win: The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany) – An incredible, politically charged film that deserves attention.

Not seen: I'm Still Here (Brazil), Flow (Latvia)

Best Animated Feature

👑 Did win: Flow 

✅ Will win: Flow – Has the kind of indie, artistic appeal that the Academy has been favoring lately (The Boy and the Heron).

💛 Should win: The Wild Robot – A beautiful and thoughtful animated film.

Not seen: Flow, Memoir of a Snail

Best Documentary Feature

👑 Did win: No Other Land 

✅ Will win: No Other Land – A politic ally urgent documentary, which often resonates with voters.

💛 Should win: Soundtrack to a Coup d'État – A fascinating and well-crafted documentary.

Not seen: No Other Land, Porcelain War

Best Costume Design

👑 Did win: Wicked 

✅ Will win: Wicked – Fantasy and period films usually win this category.

💛 Should win: A Complete Unknown – The period costumes in this are stunning.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

👑 Did win: The Substance

✅ Will win: The Substance – This category often favours bold, transformative makeup effects.

💛 Should win: The Substance – Hard to argue against this one.

Best Production Design

👑 Did win: Wicked

✅ Will win: The Brutalist – Beautifully crafted sets and meticulous attention to detail.💛 Should win: Nosferatu – If it were nominated in more above the line categories, it could have been a major contender.

Not seen: Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

👑 Did win: Dune: Part Two

✅ Will win: Dune: Part Two – Massive sci-fi spectacles usually dominate this category.💛 Should win: The Wild Robot – An immersive sound design that brings the world to life.

Not seen: Dune: Part Two

Best Film Editing

👑 Did win: Anora

✅ Will win: Anora – Fast-paced, dynamic editing that perfectly suits the film.

💛 Should win: Anora – No complaints here!

Best Cinematography

👑 Did win: The Brutalist

✅ Will win: The Brutalist – Stunning visuals that elevate the storytelling.

💛 Should win: Maria – A visually breathtaking film that deserves more recognition.

Not seen: Dune: Part Two

Best Visual Effects

👑 Did win: Dune: Part Two

✅ Will win: Dune: Part Two – Pretty much a lock here, as sci-fi epics usually win this category.

💛 Should win: Better Man – Impressive and inventive effects work.

Not seen: Dune: Part Two, Alien: Romulus

Best Live Action Short

👑 Did win: I'm Not a Robot

✅ Will win: Anuja – Has been getting strong festival buzz.

💛 Should win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent – A compelling short that deserves recognition.

Not seen: The Last Ranger, A Lien

Best Animated Short

👑 Did win: In the Shadow of the Cypress

✅ Will win: Wander to Wonder – Has a strong mix of artistry and storytelling that often wins in this category.

💛 Should win: Wander to Wonder – Fully on board with this one, sounds just my thing!Not seen: Any of them

Best Documentary Short

👑 Did win: The Only Girl in the Orchestra

✅ Will win: Instruments of a Beating Heart – Poignant and socially relevant, a common winner trait.

💛 Should win: Incident – A gripping and well-crafted documentary short.

Not seen: Death by Numbers

That’s a wrap on my 2025 Oscar predictions! Will my guesses hold up, or will the Academy throw some surprises our way? I’ll update this post after the ceremony, let’s see how many I get right!

Let me know your predictions via instagram. Who are you rooting for? Which snubs still sting?

Can’t wait to see how it all unfolds on Oscar night!